Weekend Box Office Top 10: Can ‘Hunger Games: Catching Fire’ Break November Record?

Weekend Box Office Top 10: Can ‘Hunger Games: Catching Fire’ Break November Record?

3RD UPDATE: The Friday night numbers are coming through, and here is how the Top 10 looks. You might notice that Ender’s Game, Captain Phillips and About Time didn’t make the cut this week. Cracking the Top 10 is Dallas Buyers Club, which, like 12 Years A Slave, is an overachieving low-budget film that will try to hang in through Oscar season. The other newcomer, Delivery Man, is not looking promising as a counterprogramming entry, landing in fourth place. Here goes:

1) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

PG-13/ Lionsgate/ New/ Runs: 4,163/ Friday: $ 67.5 million; Saturday: $ 45.9. Sunday: $ 32.1. Weekend Total: $ 145.5 million. Per-screen average: $ 34,958

2) Thor: The Dark World

PG-13/ Disney/ Week 3/ Runs: 3,713 (-128). Friday: $ 4.2 million; Saturday: $ 6.7 million; Sunday: $ 4 million. Weekend Total: $ 14.9 million. Per-screen average: $ 4,036. Total domestic gross: $ 168.7 million.

3) The Best Man Holiday

R/ Universal/ Week 2/ Runs: 2,041. Friday: $ 3.5 million. Saturday: $ 5.1 million. Sunday: $ 3.1 million. Weekend Total: $ 11.7 million. Per-screen average: $ 5,737. Total domestic gross: $ 49.6 million.

4) Delivery Man

PG-13/ Disney/ New/ Runs: 3,036/ Friday: $ 3 million. Saturday: $ 3.6 million. Sunday: $ 2.3 million. Weekend Total: $ 8.9 million. Per-screen average: $ 2,945. Total domestic gross: $ 8.9 million.

5) Free Birds

PG/ Relativity/ Week 4/ Runs: 3,071/ Friday: $ 1.1 million. Saturday: $ 2.5 million. Sunday: $ 1.6 million. Weekend Total: $ 5.3 million. Per-screen average: $ 1,741. Total domestic gross: $ 48.6 million.

6) Last Vegas

PG-13/ CBS Films/ Week 4/ Runs: 2,926/ Friday: $ 1.3 million. Saturday: $ 2 million. Sunday: $ 1.1 million. Weekend Total: $ 4.4 million. Per-screen average: $ 1,520. Domestic Total: $ 54 million

7) Gravity

PG-13/ Warner Bros / Week 8/ Runs: 1845/ Friday: $ 943,000./ Saturday: $ 1.6 million. Sunday $ 907,000. Weekend Total: $ 3.5 million. Per screen average: $ 1,897. Domestic Total: $ 245.7 million

Eight) Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

R/ Paramount/ Week 5/ Runs: 2,625/ Friday: $ 1 million. Saturday: $ 1.6 million. Sunday: $ 867,000. Weekend Total: $ 3.5 million. Per-screen average: $ 1,332. Domestic Total: $ 95.5 million.

9) 12 Years A Slave

R/ Fox Searchlight/ Week 6/ Runs: 1,474/ Friday: $ 790,000. Saturday: $ 1.2 million. Sunday: $ 734,000. Weekend Total: $ 2.7 million. Per-screen average: $ 1,864. Domestic Total: $ 29.3 million.

10) Dallas Buyers Club

R/ Focus Features/ Week 4/ Runs: 666/ Friday: $ 727,000. Saturday: $ 1.1 million. Sunday: $ 732,000. Weekend Total: $ 2.5 million. Per-screen average: $ 3,882. Domestic Total: $ 6.3 million.

Related: Can ‘Catching Fire’ Hit Some Very Big Box Office Targets?

2ND UPDATE, 8:23 PM PST: Just got off a plane, and the weekend box office picture is getting a little clearer. Forget the outsized numbers being tossed around all week, it looks like the question will be whether The Hunger Games: Catching Fire breaks the November record of $ 142.8 million set by Twilight Saga: New Moon. A few estimates are rolling in at around $ 140 million. I would bet the film does better than that. Why does a movie overachieve? Usually, it happens when word of mouth is good and screen count is high, and this has both things going for it. Last weekend’s The Best Man Holiday got a strong CinemaScore and got a 66% on Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomato Meter, which measured reviewer response, but a 93% on the audience meter, which meant it was a crowd-pleaser. Catching Fire got an 89% on the Tomato Meter measuring critics and a 94% audience score. So it certainly ha s a chance to surpass the Twilight Saga film. It will have to overachieve if it has a chance to match the $ 152.5 million opening weekend that the original enjoyed when it bowed March 23, 2012. And when Lionsgate opened that film Thursday, there was no 8 PM screening. Have audiences tired of watching kids killing other kids after the curiosity wore off from the first film? I doubt it. The original, directed by Gary Ross, grossed $ 691 million worldwide. Let’s see how the Francis Lawrence-directed follow-up fares, with the benefit of opening in the Thanksgiving corridor.

Of the other new movies, it looks like Disney/DreamWorks’ Delivery Man, with Vince Vaughn who gets surprised to discover he’s a prolific spawner, will be lucky to pass the $ 10 million gross mark. Weekend numbers coming soon…

BREAKING: Portending a whopping opening weekend, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire grossed $ 25.25 million domestically from last night’s shows that started 8 PM. That number sits 28% higher than the Thursday gross of the first film, but I’m told that in that equation, the original did not have an 8 PM showing so that skews the numbers. The international estimate for 43 territories is already $ 32 million, counting the early grosses when it opened a week early in Brazil. Most major territories opened more than double that of the first film, according to Lionsgate. The film opens in 65 territories this weekend. As for the weekend box office numbers, go out, buy a hat and then hang on the heck onto it, because this film could hit $ 160 million-$ 180 million for the weekend and then continue strongly through Thanksgiving weekend. According to Fandango, 92% of its advance ticket sales are for this movie, and that breaks a record set by the last Iron Man. The November record holder, Twilight Saga: New Moon, holds the mark at around $ 142.8 million; sorry Teams Edward and Jacob, because this film will likely blow right past that. Catching Fire is in 4163 locations, which means the screen count is higher. IMAX screens last night showed a 75% spike over the first film.

This has a shot to become a truly global box office franchise for the ages, and it will benefit over the first film in that the November release date is more gross favorable than the March launch of the first film, done when Lionsgate only hoped that it had the goods. Hollywood has long faced the fact that no women mean anything at the box office except for Angelina Jolie, Sandra Bullock after Gravity and The Blind Side, and Meryl Streep, who defies every formula. After this movie, and American Hustle to follow, we might just be looking at the next female star who matters, as Katnis Everdeen drives an arrow through the heart of global stardom. While some actresses seemed poised for such a breakthrough, we haven’t really seen one like this since Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman. The nice thing is her entrance into this quartet, is all four have won Oscars, and they all can act.

Deadline.com