‘Catching Fire’ Holiday Haul Puts It On Track To Be Biz’s Next Billion Dollar Grosser; $573 Million So Far

‘Catching Fire’ Holiday Haul Puts It On Track To Be Biz’s Next Billion Dollar Grosser; $573 Million So Far

5TH UPDATE: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire has blown past expectations once again, and has earned $ 573 million in worldwide gross. This after a $ 28.5 million Saturday night. Lionsgate estimates the film will finish with a record $ 110.2 million domestic gross, but I think it will be higher, because that film company’s estimates have been conservative all the way through, even as it was clear there was no stoppin g this sequel. The film broke the record for 3-day and 5-day Thanksgiving weekend, and it now has an international gross of $ 276.5 million through Sunday. It played huge all over the world, and the question becomes, will it finish the weekend at $ 600 million?

As for the other Turkey Day weekend juggernaut, Frozen did $ 25.4 million on Saturday and that puts the film on course for $ 92.6 million for the 5-day weekend. While that isn’t as strong as Catching Fire, it is $ 10 million better than the previous record holder for that holiday, Harry Potter And The Sorcerer’s Stone.

The total 5-day weekend haul is expected to hit $ 294 million, which will barely beat last year’s $ 289.6 million mark, when the top films were Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2, Skyfall and Lincoln. That’s much better than 2009′s $ 266.6 million, when the top films were Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1, Tangled and Megamind.

More to come. (Scroll down for Top 10.)

4TH UPDATE, Saturday 9:15 am PST: The record smashing performances of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire as well as Disney’s animated Frozen keep looking better and better. Late last night, indications were that Catching Fire would reach $ 31 million, but it instead did $ 31.8 million. Frozen looked to do $ 25.8 million Friday and it did nearly $ 27 million. Both films will blow past the 5-day weekend record set by Harry Potter And T he Sorcerer’s Stone‘s $ 82 million, but it now looks like Catching Fire might reach $ 113 million. So Catching Fire‘s domestic cume is now $ 253.25 million, to go with an international gross of $ 229 million as of Friday. That puts the film already at a $ 482.25 million global gross and that might get to $ 500 million by the close of the weekend, and now the talk will become whether this film can get to $ 1 billion in global numbers. It gets a lot less compelling after that, but the movies are playing, and it certainly looks like this weekend in total will break the $ 291 million 5-day weekend record, fueled mostly by the top two juggernauts. Thor: The Dark World did $ 4.5 million Friday; The Best Man Holiday did $ 3.38 mi llion last night; Delivery Man did $ 2.7 million Friday; Homefront had a $ 2.6 million Friday; The Book Thief did $ 1.9 million Friday; Black Nativity $ 1.6 million; Philomena $ 1.3 million and Last Vegas $ 1.1 million.

 3RD UPDATE, Friday, Nov 29,10:42 pm PST : The weekend numbers continue to flatter Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Disney’s Frozen. Both had torrid Friday grosses and both are on pace to shatter the five-day Thanksgiving holiday record of $ 82 million that was set by Harry Potter And The Sorcerer’s Stone. Catching Fire’s $ 31 million Friday puts that film on course to exceed $ 110 million for the five-day weekend, which would put the film near the $ 300 million domestic gross mark after its second weekend. Frozen looks like it will land at $ 25.8 million, positioning the film for a shot to crack the $ 90 million mark for the long holiday weekend. The other surprises are that Black Nativity has pushed into the Top 10 and so has Philomena. All this gives the box office a chance to do close to $ 300 million for five days. Previous holiday record is $ 291 million.  Here is how they stack up. More to come tomorrow.

1) Hunger Games: Catching Fire

PG13/ Lionsgate / Week 1/ Runs: 4163/ Wednesday $ 21.5 million, +34%/ Thursday $ 15.5, -28%/ Friday $ 31 million + 100%/ Saturday Projection: $ 29 million -5%/ Sunday Projection: $ 16.2 million -45%. Total 3-Day weekend: $ 76.6 million/ Total 5-day weekend $ 110 million. Domestic Total: $ 300 million.

2) Frozen

PG/ Disney / New/ Runs: 3742/ Wednesday $ 15.3 million/Thursday $ 11.1 million, -27%/ Friday $ 25.8 million, +132%/Saturday $ 24.5 million -5%/Sunday $ 13 million -45%. Total 3-day weekend: $ 63.8 million. Projected 5-day weekend gross: $ 90 million. Domestic total gross: $ 90.6 million.

3) Thor: The Dark World

PG13/ Disney / Week 3/ Runs: 3286 (Down 427 screens)/ Wednesday $ 2.4 million, +21%/Thursday $ 2 million, -13%/ Friday $ 4 million, +100%/Saturday $ 3.9 million, -5%/Sunday $ 1.9 million, -50%. Projected 3-day weekend gross: $ 10 million. Total 5-Day weekend: $ 14.4 million. Domestic total gross: $ 185.6 million.

4) The Best Man Holiday

R/ Universal/ Week 2/ Runs: 1785 (down 256 screens)/ Wednesday $ 1.2 million, +21%/Thursday $ 2 million, +13%/ Friday $ 3.4 million, +150%/ Saturday $ 4 million, +15%/Sunday $ 1.8 million, -55%. . Projected 3-day weekend: $ 9.2 million. Projected 5-day weekend gross: $ 11.8 million. Domestic total gross: $ 64 million.

5) Delivery Man

PG13/ Disney/ Week 1/ Runs: 3036/ Wednesday $ 1.3 million/ Thursday $ 1.4 million, +10%/Friday $ 2.3 million, +65%/ Saturday $ 2.5 million, +5%/Sunday $ 1.2 million, -50%. Total 3-day weekend: $ 6 million. Total 5-day weekend: $ 8.8 million.  Domestic total gross: $ 18.6 million.

6) Homefront

R/ Open Road / New/ Runs: 2572/ Wednesday $ 1.4 million/Thursday $ 1.4 million, -2%/Friday $ 2.3 million, 70%/ Saturday $ 2.3 million, 0%/ Sunday $ 1.29 million, -45%. Total 3-day weekend: $ 5.98 million. Total 5-day weekend $ 8.77 million. Domestic total gross: $ 8.77 million.

7) The Book Thief

PG-13/ Fox / Week 3/ Runs: 1234 (up 1164 screens after platforming) / Wednesday $ 709,703, up 749% with higher screen count/ Thursday $ 808,000, +14%/Friday $ $ 1.77 million, +120%/Saturday $ 1.77 million, 0%/ Sunday $ 978,000, -45%. Total 3-day weekend: $ 4.5 million. Total 5-day gross: $ 6 million. Domestic total gross: $ 7.5 million.

8 ) Black Nativity

PG/ Fox Searchlight/ New/ Runs: 1516/ Wednesday $ 435,594/ Thursday $ 675,000, +55%/ Friday $ 1.58 million, +135%/ Saturday $ 1.58 million, +0%/ Sunday $ 793,000, -50%.  Total 3-day gross: $ 4 million. Total 5-day gross: $ 5 million. Domestic total gross: $ 5 million.

9) Philomena

PG13/Weinstein Company/Week 2/Runs:835/ Wednesday $ 377,000/ Thursday $ 434,000, +15%/ Friday $ 1.2 million, +175%/ Saturday $ 1.25 million, +5%/ Sunday $ 752,000, -40%. Total 3-day gross: $ 3.2 million. Total 5-day gross: $ 4 million. Domestic total gross: $ 4 million.

10) Last Vegas

PG13/ CBS Films / Week 4/ Runs: 1963 (down 963 screens)/ Wednesday $ 461,325, down 22%/Thursday $ 580,000, +26%/ Friday $ 1 million, +80%/ Saturday $ 992,000, -5%/ Sunday $ 496,000, -50%. Total 3-day gross: $ 2.5 million. Total 5-day weekend: $ 3.6 million. Domestic total gross: $ 58.5 million.

2ND UPDATE, FRIDAY, 6:20 AM: Early numbers are dribbling in on Black Friday. Box office on Thanksgiving dipped predictably on a family holiday. Still, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire did $ 14.9 million, and it now looks like it could reach $ 103 million for the five-day holiday. Its Thanksgiving haul broke the record for that holiday, passing Toy Story 2, which grossed $ 13.1 million that day. Hitting near $ 103 would far surpass the previous record for this 5-day holiday, which was formerly held by Harry Potter And The Sorcerer’s Stone, which conjured $ 82 million. Frozen turned in a $ 10.8 million Thursday and the film could reach $ 90 million or slightly better for the five day period, a very strong start for a picture that ought to play through the Christmas holiday. Thor: The Dark World did $ 1.9 million and is looking at a $ 13. 5 million holiday take; Delivery Man did $ 1.4 million and is looking at $ 9.6 million and Homefront did $ 1.43 million and is looking at $ 8.8 million for the long weekend. The Best Man Holiday did $ 1.3 million, The Book Thief $ 725,000 for a $ 6.2 million five day total; and Black Nativity did $ 686,000 for a $ 4 million 5-day gross. More as the numbers come in.

1ST UPDATE, THURSDAY, 7:33 AM:  In my short tenure pretending to be a box office expert, I’ve come to learn that what our readers want today is 1) turkey, 2) gravy, 3) stuffing 4) cranberry sauce 5) a helping of projected holiday weekend grosses. Couple of changes since I first posted. Looks like Gravity is defying that, and could once again hit the Top Ten. At least it hit that last night, tying Last Vegas. I’ve included the new film I thought would hit that mark, the Kasi Lemmons-directed Black Nativity. As for Spike Lee’s Oldboy, it did $ 212,826 for FilmDistrict on 583 screens, to finish 17th place. The long weekend projections here will likely fluctuate based on weather and other variables. This ranking is based on Wednesday numbers. As for other numbers to chew on, it took Catching Fire only six days to cross $ 200 million domestic. The list:

1) Hunger Games: Catching Fire

PG13/ Lionsgate / Week 1/ Runs: 4163/ Wednesday $ 20.7 million, +34%. Early projection for five day weekend: $ 100 million.

2) Frozen

PG/ Disney / New/ Runs: 3742/ Wednesday $ 15.3 million. Projected five day weekend gross: $ 85 million.

3) Thor: The Dark World

PG13/ Disney / Week 3/ Runs: 3286 (Down 427 screens)/ Wednesday $ 2.4 million, +21%. Projected five day weekend gross: $ 16 million.

4) Homefront

R/ Open Road / New/ Runs: 2572/ Wednesday $ 1,4 million. Projected five day weekend gross: $ 9 million.

5) Delivery Man

PG13/ Disney/ Week 1/ Runs: 3036/ Wednesday $ 1.3 million. Projected five day weekend gross: $ 11 million.

6) The Best Man Holiday

R/ Universal/ Week 2/ Runs: 1785 (down 256 screens)/ Wednesday $ 1.2 million, +21%. Projected five day weekend gross: $ 12 million.

7) Free Birds

PG/ Relativity / Week 4/ Runs: 2287 (down 784 screens)/ Wednesday $ 781,099, down -16%. Projected five day weekend gross: $ 4.9 million

8) The Book Thief

PG-13/ Fox / Week 3/ Runs: 1234 (up 1164 screens after platforming) / Wednesday $ 709.703, up 749% with higher screen count. Projected five day weekend gross: $ 5.8 million.

9) Last Vegas

PG13/ CBS Films / Week 4/ Runs: 1963 (down 963 screens)/ Wednesday $ 461,325, down 22%. Projected five day weekend gross: $ 3.7 million

10) Gravity

PG13/ Warner Bros/ Week 8/ Runs: 1016 (down 829 screens) / Wednesday $ 442,372 (down 1%). Projected five day weekend gross: $ 3.7 million.

11) Black Nativity

PG/ Fox Searchlight/ New/ Runs: 1516/ Wednesday $ 435,594. Projected five day holiday gross: $ 3 million.

PREVIOUS, THURSDAY 2:40 AM: From early estimates, it looks like The Hunger Games: Catching Fire will stay hot through this five day weekend, though Disney’s family animation film Frozen will give it a run for its money. Catching Fire should finish the five day weekend as high as $ 90 million or slightly better, while Frozen will land in the $ 80 million range for the same period. Catching Fire landed between $ 19 million to $ 22 million Wednesday while Frozen grossed  between $ 15 million to $ 17 million after last week’s stellar one-theater debut at the El Capitan. That film got an A+ Cinemascore and strong reviews. Despite the formidable new entry, the weekend will be hard pressed to top last Thanksgiving, which had the final Twilight Saga and 007 film Skyfall as well as Lincoln, Life Of Pi and Wreck-It Ralph. There isn’t as strong a group this year behind Catching Fire and Frozen, as some of these films are close to being played out.

I’m talking to you, Thor: The Dark World. That film hung on to third place with near $ 3 million for Wednesday night. In a surprise, Delivery Man is showing some staying power and could turn in a $ 10 million holiday haul to finish near $ 20 million. That would still make it a disappointment. After that comes the Jason Statham action film Homefront, another new opener which should finish near $ 7 million, based on a $ 1.4 million Wednesday evening. After that it’s Best Man’s Holiday, which finished Wednesday around $ 1.2 million and should get to $ 10.5 million; Free Birds, which grossed just under $ 1 million and projects to a $ 6.5 million weekend. Right after that is The Book Thief, which has opened wide to 1234 theaters and grossed $ 800,000 for Wednesday and will finish the weekend at $ 5.2 million. Finishing ninth will be Last Vegas, which grossed $ 600,000 for Wednesday and should do around $ 4.8 million. Rounding out the Top 10 is another new entry, Black Nativity, which did $ 500,000 Wednesday and should finish the holiday weekend near $ 3 million. Finishing out of the money is the Spike Lee-directed Oldboy, and maybe the image of Josh Brolin whacking people with a hammer isn’t necessarily what you want to see on Thanksgiving and Hanukkah. The original is one of the craziest, most depraved films I’ve seen, and there is a twist in there that leaves you reeling. Not sure we needed an encore. More when the numbers really begin rolling in.

Deadline.com