BOX OFFICE: ‘Hobbit,’ ‘Anchorman 2? Lead Way In Crowded Market; ‘American Hustle,’ ‘Saving Mr. Banks,’ ‘Walking With Dinosaurs’ In Wide Release

BOX OFFICE: ‘Hobbit,’ ‘Anchorman 2? Lead Way In Crowded Market; ‘American Hustle,’ ‘Saving Mr. Banks,’ ‘Walking With Dinosaurs’ In Wide Release

OPENING:  Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues (Paramount, wide after Wed. opening) very strong, American Hustle (Sony, wide) a nice set up , Saving Mr. Banks (Disney,wide) respectable, Walking with Dinosaurs (Fox/Reliance/IMG Global, wide) plodding along, The Past (Sony Pictures classics, ltd), Her (Warner Bros.’ ltd), Dhoom3 (Yash Raj Films, ltd) top ten surprise. NOTEWORTHY: Disney’s Thor: The Dark World may hit the $ 200M mark this weekend. Overall, year-to-year up box office up around 20%.

UPDATED, 12:30 AM SATURDAY: Responding to feedback, I’m going to post numbers up top and do analysis at the end. But to preface, remember this weekend is considered the warm-up before next week’s end of the year box office madness. These are early estimates and numbers will change as the weekend progresses. Here we go:

TOP FIVE:

Warner Bros./MGM’s The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug, took in roughly $ 8.4M to $ 8.6M Friday night on 3,928 locales and is expected to gross a little over $ 30M for the pre-holiday weekend for a cume between $ 126M and $ 127M. Of course that number could change. The question is how much it will drop overall in its second weekend. Percentage drops could be high. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, in 3,507 theaters, nabbed $ 8.7M to $ 9M in its first night of the three-day weekend and it looks at the moment to make anywhere between $ 27M to $ 29M in its three-day debut and around $ 41M to $ 42M for the five-day for Paramount Pictures. Disney’s Frozen is still holding strong in its fifth week out, sliding in with a $ 5M Friday and is expected to gross anywhere in the range of around $ 20M more this weekend (depending on how high a percentage jump it gets from family weekend) for a total cume of around $ 190M. It’s in third place and in 3,540 theaters.

Sony’s American Hustle, in its first weekend going wide in 2,507 locations, brought in about $ 6M Friday night and is expected to have a three-day weekend around the $ 18M to $ 19M mark. In the fourth spot ahead of Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire which in its fifth week on 2,949 arenas is expected to end the weekend with anywhere between $ 8.5M to $ 10M; its cume is now around $ 370M. Also in contention for the fifth spot comes Saving Mr. Banks from Disney â€" also going wide this weekend â€" bringing in around $ 3M Friday and is expected to gross about $ 9.5M.

BOTTOM FIVE:

Tyler Perry’s A Madea’s Christmas from Lionsgate, looks like it’s going to drop significantly in its second weekend out. In 2,194 theaters, it looks to bring in around $ 8M to $ 9M this weekend to push its cume to right around $ 27M to $ 29M. The Fox distributed Walking With Dinosaurs is plodding along in 3,231 locales in its first weekend out. The CG animated 3D film pushed in estimated $ 2M to $ 2.3M Friday night and is expected to gross only around $ 7M to $ 9M for the pre-holiday weekend. The Bollywood film Dhoom3  – which is a Hindi action/thriller and third in a franchise snuck into the top ten this weekend (not unusual for a popular Bollywood film). In 236 theaters, it has a per screen of $ 16,525.It could gross about $ 4M this weekend. Rounding out the top ten is Thor: The Dark World w hich could just slip past the $ 200M in its seventh week. It is expected to pull in another $ 1.4M in 1,116 theaters.

NOTEWORTHY:  This weekend overall looks to be about 20% ahead of last year. Good tidings for all.

Last year’s Hobbit dropped 55% its second weekend out. This year’s percentage drop may be greater than that, and that will be telling. Walking with Dinosaurs has a hefty budget of what those involved with the film say is $ 80M. Add to that, marketing and distribution costs and a box office take expected to be only $ 7M to 9M and right now the words ‘tarpits’ and ‘extinction’ come to mind. Will see what happens during the week. Dhoom3 is considered to be one of the most expensive Indian films of all time and is the first Bollywood offering to be filmed for the IMAX format. Both American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks have a good chance of reaching maybe $ 70M to $ 90M over time.  Looking back historically, P.S. I Love You, which grossed $ 6.8M the weekend before Christmas, ended up grossing a total of $ 60M while Sony’s The Fighter opened at $ 12M and â€" buoyed by Oscar buzz and wins â€" ende d its run at $ 80M.  Remember, when Christmas falls mid-week, the previous weekend’s box office fails to be as significant as what it will do during the extended holiday week. But boy do we have a Christmas crunch on its way with five more wide releases knocking into an already crowded market. Think bumper cars.

NEXT WEEK: Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount, wide), The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox, wide), 47 Ronin (Universal, wide), Grudge Match (Warner Bros.’, wide), Justin Bieber’s Believe (Open Road,wide), The Invisible Woman (Sony Pictures Classics, ltd), August Osage County (The Weinstein Co, ltd).

UPDATE, 8 AM FRIDAY: Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues took in another $ 5.1M on Thursday for a total 2-day cume of $ 13.2M. Paramount is still expecting a $ 30M three-day weekend, although industry analysts are downgrading that estimate to below $ 30M. Only time will tell as it enters a very packed weekend. It is, however, one of the few comedies in the marketplace now. The promotio n its star Will Ferrell has done in pre-release the picture has been significant, everything from a spot for Dodge to speaking on college campuses. This pre-holiday opening weekend for all new pics is just a warm-up for next week. The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug is doing well this week with another $ 5M added for a to date cume now of $ 96M. Expectations are for it to be No. 1 this weekend. American Hustle played strong last night in 2,215 theaters for another $ 1.1M and Sony is expecting a mid-to-high teen million dollar gross for the three-day.

PREVIOUS, THURSDAY AM: It’s like rush hour in Los Angeles at the nation’s box office this weekend with four more titles merging into the marketplace in wide release on what is The Hobbit: Desolation Of Smaug’s second weekend out.  Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, having opened to a $ 2.3 million midnight on Tuesday night for a stellar $ 8M Wednesday total, looks on track for a $ 40M-$ 45M five-day opener and a $ 30M three-day total in 3,4550 theaters. (I will be looking at both the three-day to compare apples and apples and the five-day, of course), according to Paramount.  One distrib noted that the opening was better than the Wednesday opening of Little Fockers three years ago December which clocked in at $ 7.1M that day and went on to grab a three-day total of $ 30.8M. In that instance, Fockers opened on Christma s Eve when many theaters are dark so its not exactly comparing apples with apples. Anchorman 2 also received a B Cinemascore, probably because the first 45 minutes were much stronger than the last 45 minutes, according to exhibs.

Meanwhile, The Hobbit: Desolation Of Smaug is headed for another strong weekend and is expected to pull in another $ 30M-plus over the three-day. Its cume to date with is now $ 91M as it continues to hold in 3,903 locales. And Thor: A Dark World is just days away from crossing the $ 200M domestically mark for Disney and Marvel with its cume now at 199.1M.

American Hustle, which had phenom per screen averages last weekend (over $ 123,000 per), goes wide for Sony on roughly 2,507 screens.  The David O.Russell film is finding its success across demos playing equally well with adult male and females. Not surprising. This strong ensemble piece of Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence is likely to gain strong positive word-of-mouth and have a good weekend. Sony expects a mid-to-high-teen million dollar weekend and a strong multiple … yep, expect long tail on this one.

Competing for Disney’s Frozen family audiences, comes Fox’s Walking With Dinosaurs stomping in on 3,231 locations, but unlike Frozen, the dinosaur movie is made for 3D eye candy. The majority of theaters for Walking With Dinosaurs are 3D theaters â€" 84% to be exact. With Frozen already having established itself as a solid performer for families and adults, Disney is turning its attention this weekend to Saving Mr. Banks hoping to grab more attention for the film about Walt Disney securing the rights to Mary Poppins from its very proper and unwilling author played by Emma Thompson. Last weekend’s limited release saw smaller than hoped for numbers for the entertaining, story-driven film.

Also opening in limited release is Warner Bros.’ Her starring Joaquin Phoenix, and Sony Pictures Classics’ The Past which was just nominated for a Golden Globe as the Best Foreign Language Film and won Best Actress at Cannes for its star Bérénice Béjo.

Deadline.com